Description

This analysis provides a forecast of VET prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2025-09-21 0.016435 0.018594 0.020930 0.023649 0.026725 0.030100 0.034083
2025-09-28 0.012502 0.015354 0.018705 0.022933 0.028132 0.034320 0.042257
2025-10-05 0.010999 0.014292 0.018382 0.023840 0.030943 0.039890 0.052042
2025-10-12 0.009822 0.013364 0.017969 0.024402 0.033177 0.044754 0.061236
2025-10-19 0.008945 0.012666 0.017699 0.025017 0.035412 0.049691 0.070872
2025-10-26 0.008001 0.011740 0.016980 0.024874 0.036501 0.053057 0.078538
2025-11-02 0.007266 0.011014 0.016437 0.024878 0.037730 0.056645 0.086752
2025-11-09 0.006526 0.010193 0.015660 0.024426 0.038191 0.059076 0.093370
2025-11-16 0.006074 0.009757 0.015403 0.024717 0.039770 0.063273 0.103019
2025-11-23 0.005568 0.009184 0.014874 0.024512 0.040517 0.066192 0.110825
2025-11-30 0.005288 0.008944 0.014845 0.025095 0.042563 0.071318 0.122647
2025-12-07 0.004773 0.008266 0.014037 0.024303 0.042232 0.072470 0.127809
2025-12-14 0.004389 0.007784 0.013527 0.023992 0.042722 0.075094 0.135848
2025-12-21 0.003973 0.007210 0.012812 0.023261 0.042413 0.076308 0.141490
2025-12-28 0.003860 0.007166 0.013017 0.024181 0.045126 0.083070 0.157812
2026-01-04 0.003704 0.007026 0.013034 0.024752 0.047236 0.088890 0.172856
2026-01-11 0.003567 0.006909 0.013081 0.025375 0.049486 0.095133 0.189229
2026-01-18 0.003340 0.006600 0.012743 0.025230 0.050233 0.098566 0.200361
2026-01-25 0.003151 0.006350 0.012495 0.025234 0.051266 0.102617 0.213055
2026-02-01 0.002925 0.006006 0.012035 0.024776 0.051325 0.104730 0.221928
2026-02-08 0.002800 0.005857 0.011951 0.025071 0.052944 0.110106 0.238077
2026-02-15 0.002632 0.005605 0.011637 0.024863 0.053490 0.113303 0.249818
2026-02-22 0.002556 0.005539 0.011700 0.025454 0.055780 0.120328 0.270499